Here is our Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction as Liam Rosenior faces his biggest test yet against the Premier League leaders.
The first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final sees a fierce London derby take center stage this Wednesday. Chelsea welcome an Arsenal side that is currently flying high at the top of the Premier League.
While the Blues will be buoyed by their recent 5-1 thrashing of Charlton in the FA Cup, they face a sterner test against Mikel Arteta’s Gunners. With silverware on the line and local pride at stake, this first leg promises to be a cracker. Who will take the giant step in this first leg clash? Read on for the complete preview of the derby.
Chelsea vs Arsenal Match Information
- Competition: 2025/26 EFL Cup (Semi-Final, 1st Leg)
- Venue: Stamford Bridge, London, England
- Date: Wednesday, 14 January 2026
- Time: 20:00 GMT
Chelsea vs Arsenal Odds to Win
English Sportsbooks have released the official Chelsea vs Arsenal odds, and the betting lines are set as follows:
- Chelsea to Win: @ 3.10 (21/10)
- Draw: @ 3.30 (23/10)
- Arsenal to Win: @ 2.15 (23/20)
CHE – ARS: H2H
The last five meetings have seen Arsenal dominate, with two wins and three draws. Their recent meeting at Stanford Bridge earlier this season, as detailed in our Chelsea vs Arsenal predictions, ended in a 1-1 draw.
- 30 Nov 2025: Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 16 Mar 2025: Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 10 Nov 2024: Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 23 Apr 2024: Arsenal 5-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 21 Oct 2023: Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal (Premier League)
Interesting Match Stats
- Chelsea have not beaten Arsenal at Stamford Bridge in any competition since 2018
- Arsenal are currently on a 9-game unbeaten run across all competitions.
- All of their previous three meetings have ended with fewer than three goals.
Chelsea Team Analysis
The Liam Rosenior era began with a 5-1 demolition of Charlton Athletic. However, the new manager knows that the result masked some underlying inconsistencies. Before that win, Chelsea had endured two losses and three draws. This includes a disappointing 1-2 defeats to Fulham and Aston Villa.
Tactically, Rosenior is expected to prioritize stability, but he faces a headache in midfield with Moises Caicedo suspended. The “missing link” for Chelsea this season has been their inability to string together back-to-back performances.
They have frequently followed positive results with defensive lapses. The Blues have conceded in their last five Premier League outings. Chelsea cannot afford to continue against the league’s most potent attack.
Chelsea Line-Up Prediction
New boss Liam Rosenior is sweating on the fitness of key trio Cole Palmer, Reece James, and Malo Gusto, who all missed the Charlton game with knocks. They face late fitness tests but are doubtful. Moises Caicedo is definitely out due to suspension.
Possible starting lineup: Jorgensen; Gusto, Chalobah, Fofana, Cucurella; James, Fernandez; Estevao, Palmer, Neto; Delap.
Last 5 Matches: W-L-D-D-L
Arsenal Team Analysis
Mikel Arteta’s side arrives at Stamford Bridge in imperious form. Sitting top of the Premier League and fresh off a 4-1 FA Cup victory over Portsmouth, confidence is sky-high. The Gunners have shown incredible resilience lately. This is highlighted by a gritty 0-0 draw with Liverpool and a 3-2 comeback win against Bournemouth earlier in January.
Arteta’s tactical setup has been flexible, utilizing Declan Rice’s driving runs and Saka’s tricky moves to devastating effect. Arsenal’s away form is particularly strong; they have scored 2+ goals in three of their last four away trips. Their “missing link” has occasionally been killing games off early. However, their recent flurry of goals suggests they are finding their clinical edge just in time for the semi-finals.
Arsenal Line Up Prediction
After committing an additional five years with the Gunners earlier this week, Saka is set to lead the line on Wednesday. However, Arsenal have their own injury concerns with Piero Hincapie (groin) likely out. Defenders Riccardo Calafiori and Cristhian Mosquera are closing in on returns but may not be risked from the start.
Possible starting lineup: Kepa; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.
Last 5 Matches: W-D-W-W-W
Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips
Using recent performances and key statistics, here are the most Promising betting picks for our Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction:
- Arsenal To Win @ 2.15 (23/20) — Despite this being a derby, the disparity in form and stability is too large to ignore. Arteta’s Arsenal are unbeaten in 9 games against Chelsea and are currently the most consistent team in the country. With Chelsea missing their midfield anchor, Caicedo, and potentially their creative hub, Palmer, Arsenal’s cohesive unit should have enough quality to secure a first-leg advantage.
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS) @ 1.66 (4/6) — History suggests goals when these two meet. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 6 H2H encounters. Chelsea’s defense has been leaky (conceding in 5 straight PL games), but playing at home under a new manager usually sparks an attacking response. Arsenal rarely draw a blank, making BTTS a solid statistical pick.
- Gabriel Martinelli Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.00 (2/1) — The Brazilian winger is in red-hot form, coming fresh off a stunning hat-trick against Portsmouth in the FA Cup. This season, Martinelli made history by becoming the first Arsenal player to find the net in five straight UEFA Champions League games. With Chelsea’s right-back situation uncertain (James and Gusto both have doubts), Martinelli could exploit any makeshift defensive arrangement on that flank.
Final Thoughts & Recommended Picks
While the “new manager bounce” might give Chelsea a temporary lift, Arsenal’s superior tactical organization and recent dominance in this fixture make them the clear favorites. Expect a spirited start from the Blues, but the Gunners’ class should eventually shine through to take a lead into the second leg. Here is our best Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction for the London Derby this midweek:
✅ Arsenal To Win @ 2.15 (23/20)
✅ Gabriel Martinelli Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.00 (2/1)
You can also check our recent Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction where all three of our betting picks were successful.✅✅✅
Adedayo is the Co-founder and lead analyst at SoccerOrator.com. With 5+ years of experience as a sports writer for major platforms like Betzillion and Eaglespredict, he brings an expert eye to the global betting markets. Formerly a multi-sport analyst covering everything from Tennis to Esports, he now specializes exclusively in European football. He provides weekly, data-backed previews for the EPL, Champions League, and top-flight European leagues, helping bettors find value through rigorous statistical analysis.