Real Madrid’s Champions League title defence hangs in the balance as they host Arsenal for the second leg of the quarter-final. To keep their hopes alive, Los Blancos must overturn a daunting 3-0 first-leg defeat at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Meanwhile, Arsenal is on the brink of their first semi-final appearance since 2009 after a sensational second-half display last week. Can they finish the job? Our Real Madrid vs. Arsenal UCL predictions give you the latest analysis and betting trends for champions league.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal Match Information
- Competition: 24/25 UEFA Champions League, quarter-finals, 2nd leg.
- Venue: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
- Date: 16 April 2025
- Time: 19:00 GMT on Wednesday
Real Madrid vs Arsenal Odds to Win
Contrary to our Arsenal vs Real Madrid prediction in the first leg, Madrid is the heavy favorite here, with Arsenal as the underdog.
- Real Madrid to Win @ 1.66 (2/3)
- Draw @ 4.33 (10/3)
- Arsenal to Win @ 4.33 (10/3)
RMA – ARS: H2H
Arsenal has yet to lose or concede any goal to Madrid in the Champions League.
- Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid (8 April 2025)
- Arsenal 2-2 Real Madrid (24 July 2019)
- Real Madrid 0-0 Arsenal (8 March 2006)
- Arsenal 0-1 Real Madrid (21 February 2006)
Interesting Match Stats
- Thierry Henry’s brilliant solo goal against Real Madrid in 2006 secured Arsenal’s place in history as the first English club to win at the Santiago Bernabéu.
- Real Madrid is appearing in their 21st Champions League quarter-final, second only to Bayern Munich.
- Madrid have overturned a first-leg away defeat 25 times in UEFA competitions, falling short 16 times.
Real Madrid Team Analysis
Real Madrid left North London empty-handed, suffering a 3-0 defeat at the Emirates. This marks just the fifth time they’ve lost a Champions League knockout first leg by three or more goals. They’ve been eliminated in four of those instances, though they famously overturned a 4-1 deficit to Derby County in 1975. Now, they seek a similar remontada against Arsenal.
Veteran boss Carlo Ancelotti, known for tactical flexibility and calm leadership, will need a perfect game plan to rescue Los Blancos. Despite their pedigree, Madrid’s last three UCL exits have come against English opposition. However, they edged Alaves 1-0 at the weekend, thanks to Camavinga’s goal, but concern lingers. Notably, Madrid hasn’t failed to score at home in the Champions League since a 2018 loss to CSKA Moscow.
Real Madrid Line-Up Prediction
Aurelien Tchouameni returns from suspension to replace the banned Camavinga. However, Militao and Carvajal are long-term absentees with injury, with Mendy and Lunin remained doubtful.
Possible starting lineup: Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Garcia; Tchouameni, Modric; Bellingham, Rodrygo, Vinicius Jr; Mbappe
Last 5 Matches: W-L-L-D-W
Arsenal Team Analysis
Arsenal dismantled Real Madrid in London despite missing key players like Havertz, Jesus, and Gabriel Magalhães. Mikel Arteta’s side fully deserves a semi-final spot, their first since 2009. Their only regret might be not scoring more, despite registering 11 shots on target. This is the joint-most goal attempt against Madrid in a UCL knockout.
However, a rotated team drew 1-1 with Brentford last Saturday, extending their unbeaten streak to nine games across competitions.
Arsenal have scored in each of their last eight matches, suggesting another goal-filled night is possible. The Gunners remained unbeaten against Madrid competitively and famously triumphed 1-0 at the Bernabéu in 2006. Even a narrow defeat might be enough, as long as they don’t concede three goals or more, to complete a famous upset in the Spanish capital.
Line Up Prediction
Jorginho and Partey may return in Madrid after sustaining knocks against Brentford, while Timber will start regardless of White’s fitness. However, Jesus, Havertz, Tomiyasu, and Calafiori remain sidelined with ongoing injury concerns.
Possible starting lineup: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Odegaard, Rice; Saka, Trossard, Merino.
Last 5 Matches: D-W-D-W-W
Real Madrid vs Arsenal Betting Tips & Predictions
After dissecting key trends and the performance of both teams, here are our top Champions League betting tips for the Real Madrid vs Arsenal clash:
- Match Result (Draw) @ 4.33 (10/3) odds — The First leg displays proved Arsenal’s resilience this season, but it won’t be as easy as the trip to Bernabéu. Madrid will aim at a comeback, but we didn’t expect the Gunners not to put up a fight. Notably, Madrid has failed to win their last two home games. Arsenal got their 12th draw in the league last weekend, the most among the teams in the top six. This shows they have the resources to hang on when victory seems unattainable. Considering they’ve not lost to Madrid in history, we expect them to draw the game, which is enough to reach the last four.
- Declan Rice To Score or Assist @ 3.60 (13/5) odds – Last week’s hero, Declan Rice is poised to contribute to Arsenal’s attack in this encounter. His set-piece prowess yielded results during the first leg after putting the Gunners ahead with two stunning free kicks. Rice now has six goals and eight assists in the EPL and UCL. Given that he’s now assigned the set-piece roles from corners and free kicks, we expect him to score or assist in this match.
- Vinicius Jnr (over 1.5 shots on target) @ 2.25 (5/4) odds – Real Madrid must attack from the outset, potentially creating multiple openings for their front three. Vinicius Jr. averages two shots on target per Champions League match this season. Alongside Kylian Mbappe, he’ll be central to Madrid’s offensive efforts. With expected possession dominance, both stars should see ample chances to test Arsenal’s defence that could see Vinicius tally more than one shot on target on Wednesday.
Final Thoughts & Recommended Picks
Arsenal’s dominance in this fixture and defensive resilience could see them hold Madrid to a stalemate at the Bernabéu. So, here are our best Real Madrid vs Arsenal betting picks ahead of the epic match.
✅ Match Result (Draw) @ 4.33 (10/3) odds
✅ Declan Rice To Score or Assist @ 3.60 (13/5) odds
