Here is our Man United vs Man City Prediction as Michael Carrick returns to Old Trafford as an interim manager after winning five Premier League titles as a player with them.
The eyes of the footballing world turn to the “Theatre of Dreams” for the 198th Manchester Derby on Saturday lunchtime. Manchester United enters a new era under interim manager Michael Carrick, following the mid-season departure of Ruben Amorim. The Red Devils sit 7th, desperate to close a three-point gap to the Champions League places.
Meanwhile, Manchester City arrives wounded yet dangerous; Pep Guardiola’s side trails league leaders Arsenal by six points after a string of three uncharacteristic draws. Who will claim the bragging rights? Read on for the complete preview of the Manchester derby.
Man United vs Man City Match Information
- Competition: 2025/26 English Premier League (Matchday 22)
- Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester, England
- Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Time: 12:30 GMT
Man United vs Man City Odds to Win
English Sportsbooks have released the official Man United vs Man City odds, and the betting lines are highlighted below:
- Home Win (Manchester United): @ 3.40 (12/5)
- Draw: @ 3.00 (2/1)
- Away Win (Manchester City): @ 2.00 (1/1)
MUN – MCI: H2H
Despite stability on the blue side of Manchester, Pep’s team has claimed just one victory in the previous five Derbies, compared to the Red Devils’ two. United’s shock victory in the 2024 FA Cup Final remains a highlight. However, City’s clinical 3-0 demolition in the reverse fixture, as detailed in our Man City vs Man United prediction, serves as a stern warning.
- September 14, 2025: Man City 3-0 Man United (Premier League)
- April 6, 2025: Man United 0-0 Man City (Premier League)
- December 15, 2024: Man City 1-2 Man United (Premier League)
- August 10, 2024: Man City 1-1 Man United (City won 7-6 on pens) (Community Shield)
- May 25, 2024: Man United 2-1 Man City (FA Cup Final)
Interesting Match Stats
- In his previous short stint as caretaker in 2021, Michael Carrick went unbeaten in three high-profile games against Villarreal, Chelsea, and Arsenal.
- Erling Haaland has 11 goal involvements (8 goals, 3 assists) in Manchester Derbies, making him the most feared individual in this fixture’s modern history.
- Manchester United has failed to win five of their last six home league matches against Manchester City.
Manchester United Team Analysis
Manchester United is a team searching for stability. Under the newly appointed Michael Carrick, the tactical emphasis is expected to shift from Amorim’s 3-4-2-1 to a more balanced 4-2-3-1. This potentially could revive the careers of players like Kobbie Mainoo.
The Red Devils have struggled with efficiency this season, underperforming their expected goals (xG) by four. Despite having the most goal attempts in the league (351), they sit 7th in the Premier League table with 32 points from 21 games.
Recent form is shaky with just one victory in their last four. This includes a painful FA Cup exit to Brighton last weekend. Carrick’s primary task will be organizing a defense that has conceded 13 goals at home this season. They will hope to revive what’s left of their season, starting with this derby.
Man United Line-Up Prediction
Noussair Mazraoui is still away at AFCON, while Matthijs de Ligt is a major doubt with a back injury. However, Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo have returned from international duty and are expected to start.
Possible starting lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Casemiro, Mainoo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko.
Last 5 Matches: L-D-D-D-W
Manchester City Team Analysis
Manchester City remains the benchmark for excellence despite three straight draws recently suggesting a slight vulnerability. Pep Guardiola has guided his side to 43 points, averaging 2.1 goals per game. City leads the league in scoring (45 goals) but is currently facing a defensive crisis, with several key starters sidelined.
The arrival of Antoine Semenyo has provided a fresh spark, with the forward tallying 16 goal contributions across all competitions this season. However, the streak of three consecutive draws earlier this month showed that when Erling Haaland is neutralized, City can struggle to break down low blocks. However, they’ve responded with two successive victories in cup competitions against Exeter and Newcastle.
Although the “missing link” this weekend is their defensive spine, which must cope without the leadership of Ruben Dias and Gvardiol. However, the potential arrival of Marc Guehi could fix that in the long run.
Man City Line Up Prediction
Omar Marmoush (AFCON), Ruben Dias (Hamstring), Josko Gvardiol (Tibial fracture), and Savinho (Knock) are all ruled out. John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are also sidelined.
Possible starting lineup: Donnarumma; Nunes, Khusanov, Alleyne, O’Reilly; Rodri; Bernardo, Cherki, Foden, Semenyo; Haaland.
Last 5 Matches: W-W-D-D-D
Man United vs Man City Prediction & Betting Tips
Using recent trends and statistics, here are the best betting picks for our Man United vs Man City prediction:
- Manchester City to Win @ 2.00 (1/1) — While the “new manager bounce” for Michael Carrick is a popular narrative, the sheer gulf in tactical cohesion favors the visitors. City knows that any further dropped points could effectively hand the title to Arsenal. Even with a depleted defense, Guardiola’s ability to dominate possession (averaging 68%) will likely starve United’s attackers of the ball. Therefore, we fancy the Citizens completing the league double over United.
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.58 (13/8) — Derbies under new management often skew toward caution. Carrick is expected to prioritize a “compact” shape to avoid a repeat of the 3-0 loss earlier this season. Considering United’s struggle to finish chances and City’s recent run of low-scoring draws against Brighton and Sunderland. Two of the last three Manchester Derbies have produced under 2.5 goals. Similarly, the last three City’s draws have followed the same trend. This trend suggests the value lies in a low-scoring, cagey affair that could yield fewer than 3 goals on Saturday.
- Erling Haaland to Score Anytime @ 1.80 (4/5) — Haaland has been quiet by his standards lately, going several games without a non-penalty goal. However, his record in the Manchester Derby is predatory, boasting eight goals. Facing a United backline likely featuring a returning Harry Maguire or a young Leny Yoro, Haaland’s movement in the box remains the most probable route to a goal.
Final Thoughts & Recommended Picks
Manchester City’s need for three points to stay in the title hunt will likely outweigh the emotional lift of Michael Carrick’s debut. Expect a disciplined performance from Pep’s team, who will capitalize on United’s transitional weaknesses. Here is our best Man United vs Man City prediction for Saturday’s Manchester Derby:
✅ Manchester City to Win @ 2.00 (1/1)
✅ Erling Haaland to Score Anytime @ 1.80 (4/5)
Adedayo is the Co-founder and lead analyst at SoccerOrator.com. With 5+ years of experience as a sports writer for major platforms like Betzillion and Eaglespredict, he brings an expert eye to the global betting markets. Formerly a multi-sport analyst covering everything from Tennis to Esports, he now specializes exclusively in European football. He provides weekly, data-backed previews for the EPL, Champions League, and top-flight European leagues, helping bettors find value through rigorous statistical analysis.
