Here is our Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction as Liam Rosenior faces Arteta for the 3rd time since becoming the Blues’ manager.
League leaders Arsenal host a resurgent Chelsea in the North West London derby on Sunday. With 61 points from 28 matches, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners hold a five-point cushion over Manchester City, but they cannot afford a stumble. Fresh off a dominant 4-1 thrashing of Tottenham, Arsenal looks invincible at home.
However, Chelsea, sitting in 5th place and unbeaten in their last six league outings under Liam Rosenior, will be ready to be the spoiler. Who will win Sunday’s derby? Here is what to expect. You can also learn the science of soccer prediction to make informed decisions.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Match Information
- Competition: 2025/26 English Premier League (Matchday 29)
- Venue: Emirates Stadium, London, England
- Date: Sunday, 1st March 2026
- Time: 16:30 GMT
Arsenal vs Chelsea Odds to Win
English Sportsbooks have released the official Arsenal vs Chelsea odds, and the betting lines are set as follows:
- Arsenal to Win: @ 1.62 (5/8)
- Draw: @ 4.00 (3/1)
- Chelsea to Win: @ 5.25 (17/4)
ARS – CHE: H2H
Arsenal remained unbeaten against Chelsea in their last 10 meetings across all competitions. This will be the fourth meeting this season alone, with Arsenal already knocking Chelsea out of the Carabao Cup.
- 03 Feb 2026: Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea (League Cup)
- 14 Jan 2026: Chelsea 2-3 Arsenal (League Cup)
- 30 Nov 2025: Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
- 16 Mar 2025: Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 10 Nov 2024: Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal (Premier League)
Interesting Match Stats
- Arsenal has conceded only 8 goals at home all season, the best defensive record in the Premier League.
- Chelsea has played out more 1-1 draws (6) than any other team in the top half of the table this season, including the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge.
- The Gunners have not lost a home league game against Chelsea since August 2021, winning four of the last five at the Emirates.
Arsenal Team Analysis
Mikel Arteta has refined Arsenal into a formidable core and still maintains the dream for a quadruple this season. Currently top of the table with 61 points, the Gunners are the benchmark for consistency. Tactical shifts involving Zubimendi and Rice in a double pivot have allowed Martin Ødegaard/Eze to operate with total creative freedom.
Arsenal’s home performance has been staggering, averaging 2.38 goals scored per game. Their recent 4-1 win over Spurs showcased their ability to dismantle low blocks. However, their “missing link” remains a slight vulnerability to clinical counter-attacks when they commit too many bodies forward. With City breathing down their necks, the pressure to maintain their 11-match unbeaten streak is immense.
Arsenal Line-Up Prediction
Mikel Merino is a long-term absentee with a foot injury, while Kai Havertz and Saka will hope to pass a late fitness test to feature in this London derby.
Possible starting lineup: Raya; Timber; Saliba; Gabriel; Hincapie; Zubimendi; Rice; Saka; Odegaard; Martinelli; Gyokeres.
Last 5 Matches: W-D-D-W-W
Chelsea Team Analysis
Since Liam Rosenior took the helm in January, Chelsea has become significantly more disciplined. Occupying 5th place with 45 points, the Blues have transitioned from an erratic squad to a tough-to-beat defensive unit. Rosenior has implemented a “mid-block” system that frustrated league leaders in recent weeks.
Notably, Chelsea has scored 25 goals away from home (52% of their season total), suggesting they are actually more dangerous on the break. However, the “missing link” for Chelsea is their lack of a finishing touch in tight games. They are coming off a frustrating 1-1 draw with Burnley, where they dominated possession but failed to capitalise. The absence of Estêvão Willian and Wesley Fofana further thins the squad, which is already battling fatigue.
Chelsea Line Up Prediction
Estêvão Willian is doubtful, while Levi Colwill, Marc Cucurella, and Jamie Gittens have been ruled out due to injuries. Meanwhile, Wesley Fofana is Suspended.
Possible starting lineup: Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Musiala, Diaz; Kane.
Last 5 Matches: D-D-W-W-W
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction & Betting Tips
Using recent performances and key statistics, here are the most promising betting picks for our Arsenal vs Chelsea prediction:
- Arsenal To Win @ 1.62 (5/8) — Despite Chelsea’s improved resilience, the Emirates factor is too strong to ignore. Arsenal has already beaten Chelsea twice this year in cup competitions. Therefore, they possess the tactical maturity to break down Rosenior’s defensive setup. With the title on the line, Arteta’s men are unlikely to blink.
- Total Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 (21/20) — While Arsenal can be prolific, Chelsea’s recent approach against top sides has been to “suffocate” the game. Three of the last four meetings between these two have seen two goals or fewer. Expect a cagey affair where one moment of magic from Saka or Ødegaard decides the outcome.
- Bukayo Saka to Assist Anytime @ 2.60 (8/5) — Saka has been the primary architect of Arsenal’s attack this season. With Chelsea missing key defenders like Colwill and Fofana, Saka’s ability to isolate full-backs and deliver pinpoint crosses for Viktor Gyökeres makes him the high-value pick for a goal contribution. His assist for Merino was what forced the reverse fixture into a draw. So, we expect him to influence this game again on Sunday.
Final Thoughts & Recommended Picks
Arsenal’s defensive discipline at home, combined with Chelsea’s depleted backline, points to a narrow yet decisive victory for the Gunners. The home side’s need for three points to stay ahead of Manchester City will provide the necessary intensity to overcome the Blues’ resistance. Here are our recommended Arsenal vs Chelsea predictions:
✅ Arsenal To Win @ 1.62 (5/8)
✅ Bukayo Saka to Assist Anytime @ 2.60 (8/5)
Adedayo is the Co-founder and lead analyst at SoccerOrator.com. With 5+ years of experience as a sports writer for major platforms like Betzillion and Eaglespredict, he brings an expert eye to the global betting markets. Formerly a multi-sport analyst covering everything from Tennis to Esports, he now specializes exclusively in European football. He provides weekly, data-backed previews for the EPL, Champions League, and top-flight European leagues, helping bettors find value through rigorous statistical analysis.
