Real Madrid visit the Metropolitano on Saturday for the season’s first derby. Los Blancos lead La Liga with 18 points collected from six matches. Atletico sit ninth, managing just half of their rivals’ tally this season. Simeone’s men have struggled for momentum this campaign, yet to secure consecutive league wins.
The derby offers Atletico a chance to revive confidence against fierce neighbours. Real Madrid, however, aims to extend their perfect start and dominance further. Who will come out on top in the Madrid derby? Our Atletico vs Real Madrid predictions guide previews the midday action. You can also check our other La Liga predictions to be well-informed about the Spanish top division.
Atletico vs Real Madrid Match Information
- Competition: 25/26 Spanish La Liga, Round 7
- Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
- Date: 27 September 2025
- Time: 14:15 GMT on Saturday
Atletico vs Real Madrid Odds to Win
Spanish sportsbooks have released the following Atletico vs Real Madrid odds ahead of the derby:
- Atletico to Win @ 3.00 (2/1)
- Draw @ 3.60 (13/5)
- Real Madrid to Win @ 2.30 (4/3)
ATM – RMA: H2H
Both teams have shared one victory apiece in their previous five meetings, with draws prevailing in three of those occasions.
- Atletico 1-0 Real Madrid (12th March 2025)
- Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico (4th March 2025)
- Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico (8th February 2025)
- Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid (9th September 2024)
- Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico (4 February 2024)
Atletico vs Real Madrid Interesting Match Stats
- Atletico are yet to string consecutive victories so far this season across tournaments.
- Real Madrid have not defeated Atletico in their last five trials.
- Los Blancos have lost just one La Liga match in 14 fixtures since April.
Atletico Team Analysis
Atletico have managed two wins, three draws, and one defeat so far in the La Liga. Their nine points place them eighth, nine adrift of leaders Real Madrid. Simeone’s side also fell to Liverpool in their Champions League group opener. This marks a frustrating start by their standards, short of the consistency usually expected. Midweek brought drama as Atletico edged Rayo Vallecano in a five-goal thriller.
Alvarez struck twice late, sealing a 3-2 comeback and vital three points. Defensively, Atletico appear vulnerable, conceding seven goals across their opening six matches. They also shipped three to Liverpool, raising concerns before the Madrid derby. The last three league derbies ended in a 1-1 draw, showing a pattern of balance. Atletico will seek a springboard momentum in this derby, a fixture they’ve not lost since September 2022 in the league.
Atletico Line-Up Prediction
Atletico welcomed Alex Baena back from injury, though several key players remain sidelined. Gimenez, Cardoso, and Almada are unavailable, while Sorloth continues to serve his suspension after receiving a recent red card.
Possible starting lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Hancko; Simeone, Koke, Barrios, Gonzalez; Greizmann, Alvarez
Last 5 Matches: W-D-L-W-D
Real Madrid Team Analysis
Xabi Alonso’s tenure at Real Madrid has started impressively with flawless results. Los Blancos remain perfect after seven matches across La Liga and Europe. They secured six league wins and triumphed against Marseille in Europe. Madrid had acquired eighteen points from six games, placing them two clear of Barcelona in second.
Their latest outing brought a commanding 4-1 victory against Levante at home. Mbappe has been electric, scoring nine goals in just seven appearances. However, Madrid have not beaten Atletico in La Liga since September 2022. They have also only secured two away league wins over Atletico since November 2016. This could grant them the needed confidence heading to this clash.
Line Up Prediction
Real Madrid remain without Alexander-Arnold, Mendy, and Rudiger, all of whom are long-term absentees. Alonso will also be cautious with Bellingham’s fitness, as he recently recovered from delicate shoulder surgery.
Possible starting lineup: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras; Guler, Valverde, Tchouameni; Mastantuono, Vinicius; Mbappe.
Last 5 Matches: W-W-W-W-W
Atletico vs Real Madrid Betting Tips & Predictions
After drawing inferences from key trends and statistics, here are the best betting opportunities for the Atletico vs Real Madrid derby:
- Real Madrid To Win @ 2.30 (4/3) — Real Madrid couldn’t relish another moment to engage in the derby. They’ve started the campaign brilliantly with six straight wins, while their counterparts are yet to win consecutive matches. Los Blancos are picking up crucial points at home and on their travels. Impressively, they’ve lost just once in their last away league matches. May’s El-Clásico was their only loss within that stretch. This proves Madrid has the form to take the fight to the Metropolitano and claim all points.
- Total goals — Over 3.5 @ 2.75 (7/4) – Both sides proved their attacking quality in midweek, remaining among the league’s most prolific. Atletico’s Alvarez struck a hat-trick, while Mbappé hit twice in Madrid’s win over Levante. Alonso’s side rank second for goals scored, netting 14 across six matches at an average of over two per game. Atletico also provided entertainment, with two of their last three fixtures producing above 3.5 goals. Saturday’s derby, therefore, promises another high-scoring contest between the fierce rivals.
- Kylian Mbappé To Score Anytime @ 2.00 (1/1) – In his second full season at the Spanish capital, Mbappé’s scoring potential has been sensational. The youngster has scored in all but one fixture this campaign, totalling nine goals in seven matches. This proves his excellent form ahead of another trip to the Metropolitano. Mbappé scored the equalizer in their second league meeting last season, and he’s set to make his mark again this weekend.
Final Thoughts & Recommended Picks
Madrid’s unbeaten streak this season gives them the edge to pick up three points in the derby. Here are our favorite Atletico vs Real Madrid Premier League predictions.
✅Real Madrid To Win @ 2.30 (4/3)
✅ Kylian Mbappé To Score Anytime @ 2.00 (1/1)
